The State of the polls Commentary on the Victorian State election from an inner city perspective

Governments are voted out of office never in.

Third terms are always the hardest. The pendulum is on the rebound but is the magnetron strong enough to cause an unplanned 1999 Kennett style upset.

Bracks/Brumby have run a good show overall. They have shown restraint and professional responsibility. There is no reason to throw them out of office. Labor will lose around 5 to 12 seats max. It may even consolidate hold on some.

Electors are also mindful that with a Liberal Federal Government with absolute power in Canberra a Labor State Government is a good way of keeping the Howard Liberal Federal Government in check.

Now is not the time to change lanes.

Legislative Council

In terms of the upper house you should look closer at a comparison we did with the 2004 Victorian senate vote. Yes I am aware that there is a difference in voting between Federal and State elections. BUT the senate vote is the same system of election as the new upper-house system. Voters when faced with the above-the-line senate style ballot paper will fall into old habits. The 2004 senate results was the Liberal party’s high and the ALP’s low. The Greens failed to generate enough steam to climb the hill. Whilst they are strong in one seat they will only win on the back of preferences which are still under discussion. Once the party above-the-line registration is finalized and hopefully backed up by a credible public opinion poll based on voter intentions in the eight new upper-house electorates we should know the outcome. +/-2%

The Greening of Melbourne

The Greens have an outside chance of an upset in Melbourne but even then its a big ask.

Melbourne has seen a demographic shift which, if they can reproduce the 2002 result, might, and its not certain, favor them. The Greens came close in 2002 only because the Liberal Party polled badly. The same can not be said for this election. The pendulum is on the rebound (although slowly). The Liberal Party should out poll the Greens

The Liberal Party can not afford this time to hold back their vote, to create an upset, as was the case in 2002. All parties need to maximise their vote state-wide not just to maximise their chances in the upper-house but to also secure valuable public campaign funding.

For the Greens to win Melbourne they will need every preference to go their way and they will need to top the Liberal Party who would need to be below 25% primary vote. A big ask. There is no news as to if Kevin Chamberlain will re-contest the seat of Melbourne.

The main upset in this election will be the Greens failure to cross the line as happened in the 2004 senate vote.

Prahran is the inner city seat to watch. It has always been the inner-city litmus test. Labor held it under Cain and also holds it now. It is vulnerable to a 5-6% swing and yes the Greens can influence the outcome but they will not win it. (It is easier for a smaller based party to win a safe seat then a marginal seat. The key being the weakness of one of the major parties which are always seen as the one to beat and attract lower preferences then other minor parties) Eltham is another seat that comes to my mind worth watching. Ivanhoe may alsoi see a big shift in support.

The Greens will not cross the line in the lower-house for reasons I have highlighted above. More analysis and public scrutiny on the Greens, its structure and policies will be more negative then positive. Their record on governance issues in the City of Melbourne is not good with the Greens supporting the holding illegal meetings of Council behind closed doors. David Risstrom, who was a candidate of note, is not running in this election.

John So – Big Fish in small Pond syndrome

There was a rumor about John So entering the field but I think he will opt not to run. John can not win Melbourne. He is a big fish in a small pond. At the age of 60 he might decide to have a go in the 2007 Senate election in the hope of extending his shelf life and influence but such a move would require him to hand over the keys to the limo, the mayoral chains and robes. (Something John might not want to give up just yet) John So’s resignation would costs the City of Melbourne over one million dollars to hold a by-election, a cost that would rebound against him. But as they say it is not over until the fat lady sings.

Nominations close November 12.

The State of the polls Commentary on the Victorian State election from an inner city perspective

Governments are voted out of office never in.

Third terms are always the hardest. The pendulum is on the rebound but is the magnetron strong enough to cause an unplanned 1999 Kennett style upset.

Bracks/Brumby have run a good show overall. They have shown restraint and professional responsibility. There is no reason to throw them out of office. Labor will lose around 5 to 12 seats max. It may even consolidate hold on some.

Electors are also mindful that with a Liberal Federal Government with absolute power in Canberra a Labor State Government is a good way of keeping the Howard Liberal Federal Government in check.

Now is not the time to change lanes.

Legislative Council

In terms of the upper house you should look closer at a comparison we did with the 2004 Victorian senate vote. Yes I am aware that there is a difference in voting between Federal and State elections. BUT the senate vote is the same system of election as the new upper-house system. Voters when faced with the above-the-line senate style ballot paper will fall into old habits. The 2004 senate results was the Liberal party’s high and the ALP’s low. The Greens failed to generate enough steam to climb the hill. Whilst they are strong in one seat they will only win on the back of preferences which are still under discussion. Once the party above-the-line registration is finalized and hopefully backed up by a credible public opinion poll based on voter intentions in the eight new upper-house electorates we should know the outcome. +/-2%

The Greening of Melbourne

The Greens have an outside chance of an upset in Melbourne but even then its a big ask.

Melbourne has seen a demographic shift which, if they can reproduce the 2002 result, might, and its not certain, favor them. The Greens came close in 2002 only because the Liberal Party polled badly. The same can not be said for this election. The pendulum is on the rebound (although slowly). The Liberal Party should out poll the Greens

The Liberal Party can not afford this time to hold back their vote, to create an upset, as was the case in 2002. All parties need to maximise their vote state-wide not just to maximise their chances in the upper-house but to also secure valuable public campaign funding.

For the Greens to win Melbourne they will need every preference to go their way and they will need to top the Liberal Party who would need to be below 25% primary vote. A big ask. There is no news as to if Kevin Chamberlain will re-contest the seat of Melbourne.

The main upset in this election will be the Greens failure to cross the line as happened in the 2004 senate vote.

Prahran is the inner city seat to watch. It has always been the inner-city litmus test. Labor held it under Cain and also holds it now. It is vulnerable to a 5-6% swing and yes the Greens can influence the outcome but they will not win it. (It is easier for a smaller based party to win a safe seat then a marginal seat. The key being the weakness of one of the major parties which are always seen as the one to beat and attract lower preferences then other minor parties) Eltham is another seat that comes to my mind worth watching. Ivanhoe may alsoi see a big shift in support.

The Greens will not cross the line in the lower-house for reasons I have highlighted above. More analysis and public scrutiny on the Greens, its structure and policies will be more negative then positive. Their record on governance issues in the City of Melbourne is not good with the Greens supporting the holding illegal meetings of Council behind closed doors. David Risstrom, who was a candidate of note, is not running in this election.

John So – Big Fish in small Pond syndrome

There was a rumor about John So entering the field but I think he will opt not to run. John can not win Melbourne. He is a big fish in a small pond. At the age of 60 he might decide to have a go in the 2007 Senate election in the hope of extending his shelf life and influence but such a move would require him to hand over the keys to the limo, the mayoral chains and robes. (Something John might not want to give up just yet) John So’s resignation would costs the City of Melbourne over one million dollars to hold a by-election, a cost that would rebound against him. But as they say it is not over until the fat lady sings.

Nominations close November 12.

The State of the polls Commentary on the Victorian State election from an inner city perspective

Governments are voted out of office never in.

Third terms are always the hardest. The pendulum is on the rebound but is the magnetron strong enough to cause an unplanned 1999 Kennett style upset.

Bracks/Brumby have run a good show overall. They have shown restraint and professional responsibility. There is no reason to throw them out of office. Labor will lose around 5 to 12 seats max. It may even consolidate hold on some.

Electors are also mindful that with a Liberal Federal Government with absolute power in Canberra a Labor State Government is a good way of keeping the Howard Liberal Federal Government in check.

Now is not the time to change lanes.

Legislative Council

In terms of the upper house you should look closer at a comparison we did with the 2004 Victorian senate vote. Yes I am aware that there is a difference in voting between Federal and State elections. BUT the senate vote is the same system of election as the new upper-house system. Voters when faced with the above-the-line senate style ballot paper will fall into old habits. The 2004 senate results was the Liberal party’s high and the ALP’s low. The Greens failed to generate enough steam to climb the hill. Whilst they are strong in one seat they will only win on the back of preferences which are still under discussion. Once the party above-the-line registration is finalized and hopefully backed up by a credible public opinion poll based on voter intentions in the eight new upper-house electorates we should know the outcome. +/-2%

The Greening of Melbourne

The Greens have an outside chance of an upset in Melbourne but even then its a big ask.

Melbourne has seen a demographic shift which, if they can reproduce the 2002 result, might, and its not certain, favor them. The Greens came close in 2002 only because the Liberal Party polled badly. The same can not be said for this election. The pendulum is on the rebound (although slowly). The Liberal Party should out poll the Greens

The Liberal Party can not afford this time to hold back their vote, to create an upset, as was the case in 2002. All parties need to maximise their vote state-wide not just to maximise their chances in the upper-house but to also secure valuable public campaign funding.

For the Greens to win Melbourne they will need every preference to go their way and they will need to top the Liberal Party who would need to be below 25% primary vote. A big ask. There is no news as to if Kevin Chamberlain will re-contest the seat of Melbourne.

The main upset in this election will be the Greens failure to cross the line as happened in the 2004 senate vote.

Prahran is the inner city seat to watch. It has always been the inner-city litmus test. Labor held it under Cain and also holds it now. It is vulnerable to a 5-6% swing and yes the Greens can influence the outcome but they will not win it. (It is easier for a smaller based party to win a safe seat then a marginal seat. The key being the weakness of one of the major parties which are always seen as the one to beat and attract lower preferences then other minor parties) Eltham is another seat that comes to my mind worth watching. Ivanhoe may alsoi see a big shift in support.

The Greens will not cross the line in the lower-house for reasons I have highlighted above. More analysis and public scrutiny on the Greens, its structure and policies will be more negative then positive. Their record on governance issues in the City of Melbourne is not good with the Greens supporting the holding illegal meetings of Council behind closed doors. David Risstrom, who was a candidate of note, is not running in this election.

John So – Big Fish in small Pond syndrome

There was a rumor about John So entering the field but I think he will opt not to run. John can not win Melbourne. He is a big fish in a small pond. At the age of 60 he might decide to have a go in the 2007 Senate election in the hope of extending his shelf life and influence but such a move would require him to hand over the keys to the limo, the mayoral chains and robes. (Something John might not want to give up just yet) John So’s resignation would costs the City of Melbourne over one million dollars to hold a by-election, a cost that would rebound against him. But as they say it is not over until the fat lady sings.

Nominations close November 12.

Dare to unite Kensington’s campaign to reunite with Melbourne an issue in the November State election

Whilst Melbourne’s Mascot Lord Mayor, John So, seeks to silence debate Kensington Residents, who claim 90% support for a review of the Melbourne City Council boundaries, continue the debate by placing the issue of city boundaries on the agenda for the November State Election.

John So’s policy of avoidance and denial is not supported at home. If the ALP loose the seat of Melbourne John So can share some of the blame.

John So might be seen as the World’s pin-up Lord Mayor but a leader he is not.

John lacks vision and ability to provide good governance or plan for Melbourne’s future. He is Melbourne’s most expensive Lord Mayor. Spending ratepayers money without any care or fiscal responsibility. John So and his self-indulgent band of City Councillors are Australia’s most travelled and expensive council in history.

And guess what? Residents and traders are not happy, and it is not just Kensington. Carlton is also wanting a review of boundaries and if you ask Prahran and South Yarra they would prefer to leave Stonington and be united under a Greater Melbourne City Council. Somehow I do think they will support John’s do nothing approach even if he is Melbourne’s World’s best mascot.

game on.

— Copy of Kensignton’s recent newsletter in the lead-up to next months State Election. Maybe John should rethink about nominating for State Parliament —

On Wednesday 15 November we will hold a public meeting for all Kensington residents and traders. (7:00 to 9:30 pm, Holy Rosary School Hall)

All candidates for our local electorate of Melbourne will be invited.

We will ask candidates to respond to this question:

“What you will do for Kensington, if elected”

The Hon. Bronwyn Pike (Labor) is our current member. We expect Richard di Natale (Greens) to be a prominent challenger. We will have the complete list of candidates when nominations close in a few days time.

Candidates will be asked to address the number 1 issue:

* Kensington boundaries – What do they say about reuniting Kensington? (90% of residents want Kensington to be reunited under the City of Melbourne.)

We’ll also ask them to address these issues:

* Health – What do they say about our community health centre buildings? (They are crumbling.)

* Traffic – What do they say about trucks in Macaulay Road? (There used to be a 24hr ban.)

* Public transport – What do they say about train services at South Kensington railway station? (Too few trains stop there.)

Then you will be able to ask questions.

If you want to make a difference regarding these issues, here are opportunities:

1. Come to the meeting! Please pencil in this date and start inviting your friends and neighbours.
2. If not currently a member, please join the Kensington Association now; if you are not up-to-date, please send your membership fees now.

Annual membership fees are $15 (family or couple, working), $10 (single, working) and $5
(single, not working). Please send cheques payable to “Kensington Association”, PO Box 1208, Kensington 3031, to hand deliver cash or cheque please email me for details. You can also make a deposit by the internet: Internet: BSB 803-223, account 900084, to “Kensington Association”.
3. Please volunteer for our letterboxing team. We will letterbox the whole of Kensington and need about 10 more people on the team. You commit to do a maximum of 2 hours.

Best regards,

Tony Dare
Membership Secretary and Treasurer
Kensington Association

Dare to unite Kensington’s campaign to reunite with Melbourne an issue in the November State election

Whilst Melbourne’s Mascot Lord Mayor, John So, seeks to silence debate Kensington Residents, who claim 90% support for a review of the Melbourne City Council boundaries, continue the debate by placing the issue of city boundaries on the agenda for the November State Election.

John So’s policy of avoidance and denial is not supported at home. If the ALP loose the seat of Melbourne John So can share some of the blame.

John So might be seen as the World’s pin-up Lord Mayor but a leader he is not.

John lacks vision and ability to provide good governance or plan for Melbourne’s future. He is Melbourne’s most expensive Lord Mayor. Spending ratepayers money without any care or fiscal responsibility. John So and his self-indulgent band of City Councillors are Australia’s most travelled and expensive council in history.

And guess what? Residents and traders are not happy, and it is not just Kensington. Carlton is also wanting a review of boundaries and if you ask Prahran and South Yarra they would prefer to leave Stonington and be united under a Greater Melbourne City Council. Somehow I do think they will support John’s do nothing approach even if he is Melbourne’s World’s best mascot.

game on.

— Copy of Kensignton’s recent newsletter in the lead-up to next months State Election. Maybe John should rethink about nominating for State Parliament —

On Wednesday 15 November we will hold a public meeting for all Kensington residents and traders. (7:00 to 9:30 pm, Holy Rosary School Hall)

All candidates for our local electorate of Melbourne will be invited.

We will ask candidates to respond to this question:

“What you will do for Kensington, if elected”

The Hon. Bronwyn Pike (Labor) is our current member. We expect Richard di Natale (Greens) to be a prominent challenger. We will have the complete list of candidates when nominations close in a few days time.

Candidates will be asked to address the number 1 issue:

* Kensington boundaries – What do they say about reuniting Kensington? (90% of residents want Kensington to be reunited under the City of Melbourne.)

We’ll also ask them to address these issues:

* Health – What do they say about our community health centre buildings? (They are crumbling.)

* Traffic – What do they say about trucks in Macaulay Road? (There used to be a 24hr ban.)

* Public transport – What do they say about train services at South Kensington railway station? (Too few trains stop there.)

Then you will be able to ask questions.

If you want to make a difference regarding these issues, here are opportunities:

1. Come to the meeting! Please pencil in this date and start inviting your friends and neighbours.
2. If not currently a member, please join the Kensington Association now; if you are not up-to-date, please send your membership fees now.

Annual membership fees are $15 (family or couple, working), $10 (single, working) and $5
(single, not working). Please send cheques payable to “Kensington Association”, PO Box 1208, Kensington 3031, to hand deliver cash or cheque please email me for details. You can also make a deposit by the internet: Internet: BSB 803-223, account 900084, to “Kensington Association”.
3. Please volunteer for our letterboxing team. We will letterbox the whole of Kensington and need about 10 more people on the team. You commit to do a maximum of 2 hours.

Best regards,

Tony Dare
Membership Secretary and Treasurer
Kensington Association

John So for Melbourne Will So spring into Spring Street

John So on a high from being nominated as World Mayor for a day has been approached to see if he would run for the State seat of Melbourne.

Judging by his standing and expressions of approval John So could be a real threat to Bronwyn Pike and the Labor Party if John decided to nominate for the seat. An ex-resident of East Melbourne, John So has often toyed with the idea of running for State Parliament or even the Senate.

Whilst there is concern that if John was to run for the State Parliament pressure would be on for him to resign as Lord Mayor, although there is no legal basis that would require him give up the gold chain, limousine and town Hall office. Is is possible to hold down two jobs.

If John So was to resign the City of Melbourne would face the costs of a new election for Lord Mayor. A by-election for Johns seat in the limo would cost the City of Melbourne up to one million dollars. That’s a lot to pay for one mans vanity. Hopefully the State Government will amend the legislation and provide for an alternative means of filling casual vacancies if and when they occur.

Game on..

John So for Melbourne Will So spring into Spring Street

John So on a high from being nominated as World Mayor for a day has been approached to see if he would run for the State seat of Melbourne.

Judging by his standing and expressions of approval John So could be a real threat to Bronwyn Pike and the Labor Party if John decided to nominate for the seat. An ex-resident of East Melbourne, John So has often toyed with the idea of running for State Parliament or even the Senate.

Whilst there is concern that if John was to run for the State Parliament pressure would be on for him to resign as Lord Mayor, although there is no legal basis that would require him give up the gold chain, limousine and town Hall office. Is is possible to hold down two jobs.

If John So was to resign the City of Melbourne would face the costs of a new election for Lord Mayor. A by-election for Johns seat in the limo would cost the City of Melbourne up to one million dollars. That’s a lot to pay for one mans vanity. Hopefully the State Government will amend the legislation and provide for an alternative means of filling casual vacancies if and when they occur.

Game on..

Dare to unite Kensington’s campaign to reunite with Melbourne an issue in the November State election

Whilst Melbourne’s Mascot Lord Mayor, John So, seeks to silence debate Kensington Residents, who claim 90% support for a review of the Melbourne City Council boundaries, continue the debate by placing the issue of city boundaries on the agenda for the November State Election.

John So’s policy of avoidance and denial is not supported at home. If the ALP loose the seat of Melbourne John So can share some of the blame.

John So might be seen as the World’s pin-up Lord Mayor but a leader he is not.

John lacks vision and ability to provide good governance or plan for Melbourne’s future. He is Melbourne’s most expensive Lord Mayor. Spending ratepayers money without any care or fiscal responsibility. John So and his self-indulgent band of City Councillors are Australia’s most travelled and expensive council in history.

And guess what? Residents and traders are not happy, and it is not just Kensington. Carlton is also wanting a review of boundaries and if you ask Prahran and South Yarra they would prefer to leave Stonington and be united under a Greater Melbourne City Council. Somehow I do think they will support John’s do nothing approach even if he is Melbourne’s World’s best mascot.

game on.

— Copy of Kensignton’s recent newsletter in the lead-up to next months State Election. Maybe John should rethink about nominating for State Parliament —

On Wednesday 15 November we will hold a public meeting for all Kensington residents and traders. (7:00 to 9:30 pm, Holy Rosary School Hall)

All candidates for our local electorate of Melbourne will be invited.

We will ask candidates to respond to this question:

“What you will do for Kensington, if elected”

The Hon. Bronwyn Pike (Labor) is our current member. We expect Richard di Natale (Greens) to be a prominent challenger. We will have the complete list of candidates when nominations close in a few days time.

Candidates will be asked to address the number 1 issue:

* Kensington boundaries – What do they say about reuniting Kensington? (90% of residents want Kensington to be reunited under the City of Melbourne.)

We’ll also ask them to address these issues:

* Health – What do they say about our community health centre buildings? (They are crumbling.)

* Traffic – What do they say about trucks in Macaulay Road? (There used to be a 24hr ban.)

* Public transport – What do they say about train services at South Kensington railway station? (Too few trains stop there.)

Then you will be able to ask questions.

If you want to make a difference regarding these issues, here are opportunities:

1. Come to the meeting! Please pencil in this date and start inviting your friends and neighbours.
2. If not currently a member, please join the Kensington Association now; if you are not up-to-date, please send your membership fees now.

Annual membership fees are $15 (family or couple, working), $10 (single, working) and $5
(single, not working). Please send cheques payable to “Kensington Association”, PO Box 1208, Kensington 3031, to hand deliver cash or cheque please email me for details. You can also make a deposit by the internet: Internet: BSB 803-223, account 900084, to “Kensington Association”.
3. Please volunteer for our letterboxing team. We will letterbox the whole of Kensington and need about 10 more people on the team. You commit to do a maximum of 2 hours.

Best regards,

Tony Dare
Membership Secretary and Treasurer
Kensington Association

John So for Melbourne Will So spring into Spring Street

John So on a high from being nominated as World Mayor for a day has been approached to see if he would run for the State seat of Melbourne.

Judging by his standing and expressions of approval John So could be a real threat to Bronwyn Pike and the Labor Party if John decided to nominate for the seat. An ex-resident of East Melbourne, John So has often toyed with the idea of running for State Parliament or even the Senate.

Whilst there is concern that if John was to run for the State Parliament pressure would be on for him to resign as Lord Mayor, although there is no legal basis that would require him give up the gold chain, limousine and town Hall office. Is is possible to hold down two jobs.

If John So was to resign the City of Melbourne would face the costs of a new election for Lord Mayor. A by-election for Johns seat in the limo would cost the City of Melbourne up to one million dollars. That’s a lot to pay for one mans vanity. Hopefully the State Government will amend the legislation and provide for an alternative means of filling casual vacancies if and when they occur.

Game on..

Silence of the lambs Do nothing John So casts vote to prevent debate and discussion

Melbourne City Council on Tuesday night under the “leadership of John So” voted down a motion to consider options for a possible expansion of Melbourne City Council’s boundaries.

Cr Peter Clark had proposed that the City Council enter into dialog with its neighbouring municipalities about the possibility of a merger and creation of a Greater City of Melbourne. A move that would have seen the Kensington, Carlton and Prahran,South Yarra communities united under one Council.

So much for cummmunity particpation and debate.

The motion (which received 4 votes in favor and 4 votes against) was voted down by John So using his casting vote to silence debate.

John So continues to display a real lack of vision and wiliness to consider the hard issues. Instead he continues to spend-up big in an effort of self promotion. John So was recently voted Number one World Lord Mayor. The talk around the City Council by senior officers is that John went all out, a bit like being a beauty contestant, to try and win the acclaimed recognition.

“If only he had a real view or vision instead of wanting to be a mascot”

Full brownie points for Cr Shanahan who second the motion supported by Councillors Brindely and Snedden.