LM Poll Stats Doyle versus the rest

Analysis of the 2008 City of Melbourne Lord Mayor Election showing a head to head competition Doyle versus all other comers.
Head to head statistical analysis of the Lord Mayor Vote

Candidate Vote % Doyle % Total
McMullin 26987 46.56% 30974 53.44% 57961
Singer 26711 46.08% 31250 53.92% 57961
Ng 26613 45.92% 31348 54.08% 57961
Fowles 26006 44.87% 31955 55.13% 57961
Brandt 24911 42.98% 33050 57.02% 57961
Morgan 24770 42.74% 33191 57.26% 57961
Columb 21855 37.71% 36106 62.29% 57961
Roberts 19434 33.53% 38527 66.47% 57961
Crawford 19005 32.79% 38956 67.21% 57961
Toscano 18145 31.31% 39816 68.69% 57961

LM Poll Stats Doyle versus the rest

Analysis of the 2008 City of Melbourne Lord Mayor Election showing a head to head competition Doyle versus all other comers.
Head to head statistical analysis of the Lord Mayor Vote

Candidate Vote % Doyle % Total
McMullin 26987 46.56% 30974 53.44% 57961
Singer 26711 46.08% 31250 53.92% 57961
Ng 26613 45.92% 31348 54.08% 57961
Fowles 26006 44.87% 31955 55.13% 57961
Brandt 24911 42.98% 33050 57.02% 57961
Morgan 24770 42.74% 33191 57.26% 57961
Columb 21855 37.71% 36106 62.29% 57961
Roberts 19434 33.53% 38527 66.47% 57961
Crawford 19005 32.79% 38956 67.21% 57961
Toscano 18145 31.31% 39816 68.69% 57961

LM Poll Stats Group Candidate tickets

Analysis: Lord Mayor HTV Ticket table

Candidate Papers % to Total Vote Ticket votes % Ticket to Candidate
Doyle 15135 26.11% 6862 45.34%
McMullin 7267 12.54% 3755 51.67%
Bandt 8729 15.06% 3745 42.90%
Singer 6056 10.45% 2548 42.07%
Ng 6314 10.89% 2227 35.27%
Fowles 5004 8.63% 2218 44.32%
Morgan 4526 7.81% 1575 34.80%
Columb 2712 4.68% 1046 38.57%
Crawford 684 1.18% 223 32.60%
Toscano 815 1.41% 222 27.24%
Roberts 719 1.24% 191 26.56%

LM Poll Stats Group Candidate tickets

Analysis: Lord Mayor HTV Ticket table

Candidate Papers % to Total Vote Ticket votes % Ticket to Candidate
Doyle 15135 26.11% 6862 45.34%
McMullin 7267 12.54% 3755 51.67%
Bandt 8729 15.06% 3745 42.90%
Singer 6056 10.45% 2548 42.07%
Ng 6314 10.89% 2227 35.27%
Fowles 5004 8.63% 2218 44.32%
Morgan 4526 7.81% 1575 34.80%
Columb 2712 4.68% 1046 38.57%
Crawford 684 1.18% 223 32.60%
Toscano 815 1.41% 222 27.24%
Roberts 719 1.24% 191 26.56%

LM Poll Stats Doyle versus the rest

Analysis of the 2008 City of Melbourne Lord Mayor Election showing a head to head competition Doyle versus all other comers.
Head to head statistical analysis of the Lord Mayor Vote

Candidate Vote % Doyle % Total
McMullin 26987 46.56% 30974 53.44% 57961
Singer 26711 46.08% 31250 53.92% 57961
Ng 26613 45.92% 31348 54.08% 57961
Fowles 26006 44.87% 31955 55.13% 57961
Brandt 24911 42.98% 33050 57.02% 57961
Morgan 24770 42.74% 33191 57.26% 57961
Columb 21855 37.71% 36106 62.29% 57961
Roberts 19434 33.53% 38527 66.47% 57961
Crawford 19005 32.79% 38956 67.21% 57961
Toscano 18145 31.31% 39816 68.69% 57961

LM Poll Stats Group Candidate tickets

Analysis: Lord Mayor HTV Ticket table

Candidate Papers % to Total Vote Ticket votes % Ticket to Candidate
Doyle 15135 26.11% 6862 45.34%
McMullin 7267 12.54% 3755 51.67%
Bandt 8729 15.06% 3745 42.90%
Singer 6056 10.45% 2548 42.07%
Ng 6314 10.89% 2227 35.27%
Fowles 5004 8.63% 2218 44.32%
Morgan 4526 7.81% 1575 34.80%
Columb 2712 4.68% 1046 38.57%
Crawford 684 1.18% 223 32.60%
Toscano 815 1.41% 222 27.24%
Roberts 719 1.24% 191 26.56%

Polling Pollies Morgan polls Morgan

By VEXNEWS

Only in the bizarre world of the Melbourne City council elections would a poll conducted by the candidate himself be accepted as legitimate.

Gary Morgan, who inherited the Roy Morgan Research company which was once the leading political polling company before Newspoll and others came along, has published the results of a survey of 330 electors.

The Herald Sun and the ABC republished them, with little questioning of their origin or methodology.

The poll description says both residents and business were polled. And then also suggests that only residents in the municipality were polled.

Disturbingly, it appears that only one candidate – Adam Bandt – had his party affiliation read out to survey respondents.

Confirming the largely useless nature of the poll is the fact that 31.5% of those surveyed said they were undecided about their first preference and a further 25% were undecided about their second.

Certainly the polling – if accurate – suggests that Doyle at this stage has the most visibility of all the candidates with 87.45 people of 330 supporting him . No surprise there, as a former state Liberal leader that he’d have the most visibility. Although some people might think it’s a surprise that it is possible to have .45 of a voter.

The other extremely odd aspect of the poll is the claim that the bloke who conducted the poll had 3.5% of first preference support with 18% giving him a second preference.

Leaving aside the ethical implications of a pollster candidate conducting polling on himself, these numbers don’t make a lot of sense at all.

Comment:I would not read much into this poll. It clearly has no statistical merit. For example the 2nd preference and aggregated 1st and 2nd preference data does not take into consideration the fold up of the election and is in effect double counting votes. IE Gary Morgan would not receive any preferences from Robert Doyle as Robert Doyle out polls Morgan. Little wonder why Morgan gallup poll is being out performed by other polling agencies. – Melbcity

Published results of Morgans flawed survey (October 29/30, 2008)

Candidate 1st Preference 2nd Preference# 1st or 2nd Preference
Robert Doyle

26.5 %

16 %

42.5 %

Adam Bandt (Greens)

16.5 %

4.5 %

21 %

Catherine Ng

10 %

15 %

25 %

Gary Singer

5 %

6 %

11 %

Gary Morgan

3.5 %

18 %

21.5 %

Nick Columb

3 %

2 %

5 %

Peter McMullin

2 %

8 %

10 %

Will Fowles

1.5 %

3 %

4.5 %

Others*

0.5 %

2 %

2.5 %

Can’t Say/ Undecided

31.5 %

TOTAL

100 %

* Other candidates for the role of Lord Mayor of Melbourne are Joseph Toscano, Bob Crawford & Shelley Roberts.
# The 31.5% of people who were can’t say/undecided have been eliminated from the 2nd Preference

Polling Pollies Morgan polls Morgan

By VEXNEWS

Only in the bizarre world of the Melbourne City council elections would a poll conducted by the candidate himself be accepted as legitimate.

Gary Morgan, who inherited the Roy Morgan Research company which was once the leading political polling company before Newspoll and others came along, has published the results of a survey of 330 electors.

The Herald Sun and the ABC republished them, with little questioning of their origin or methodology.

The poll description says both residents and business were polled. And then also suggests that only residents in the municipality were polled.

Disturbingly, it appears that only one candidate – Adam Bandt – had his party affiliation read out to survey respondents.

Confirming the largely useless nature of the poll is the fact that 31.5% of those surveyed said they were undecided about their first preference and a further 25% were undecided about their second.

Certainly the polling – if accurate – suggests that Doyle at this stage has the most visibility of all the candidates with 87.45 people of 330 supporting him . No surprise there, as a former state Liberal leader that he’d have the most visibility. Although some people might think it’s a surprise that it is possible to have .45 of a voter.

The other extremely odd aspect of the poll is the claim that the bloke who conducted the poll had 3.5% of first preference support with 18% giving him a second preference.

Leaving aside the ethical implications of a pollster candidate conducting polling on himself, these numbers don’t make a lot of sense at all.

Comment:I would not read much into this poll. It clearly has no statistical merit. For example the 2nd preference and aggregated 1st and 2nd preference data does not take into consideration the fold up of the election and is in effect double counting votes. IE Gary Morgan would not receive any preferences from Robert Doyle as Robert Doyle out polls Morgan. Little wonder why Morgan gallup poll is being out performed by other polling agencies. – Melbcity

Published results of Morgans flawed survey (October 29/30, 2008)

Candidate 1st Preference 2nd Preference# 1st or 2nd Preference
Robert Doyle

26.5 %

16 %

42.5 %

Adam Bandt (Greens)

16.5 %

4.5 %

21 %

Catherine Ng

10 %

15 %

25 %

Gary Singer

5 %

6 %

11 %

Gary Morgan

3.5 %

18 %

21.5 %

Nick Columb

3 %

2 %

5 %

Peter McMullin

2 %

8 %

10 %

Will Fowles

1.5 %

3 %

4.5 %

Others*

0.5 %

2 %

2.5 %

Can’t Say/ Undecided

31.5 %

TOTAL

100 %

* Other candidates for the role of Lord Mayor of Melbourne are Joseph Toscano, Bob Crawford & Shelley Roberts.
# The 31.5% of people who were can’t say/undecided have been eliminated from the 2nd Preference

Polling Pollies Morgan polls Morgan

By VEXNEWS

Only in the bizarre world of the Melbourne City council elections would a poll conducted by the candidate himself be accepted as legitimate.

Gary Morgan, who inherited the Roy Morgan Research company which was once the leading political polling company before Newspoll and others came along, has published the results of a survey of 330 electors.

The Herald Sun and the ABC republished them, with little questioning of their origin or methodology.

The poll description says both residents and business were polled. And then also suggests that only residents in the municipality were polled.

Disturbingly, it appears that only one candidate – Adam Bandt – had his party affiliation read out to survey respondents.

Confirming the largely useless nature of the poll is the fact that 31.5% of those surveyed said they were undecided about their first preference and a further 25% were undecided about their second.

Certainly the polling – if accurate – suggests that Doyle at this stage has the most visibility of all the candidates with 87.45 people of 330 supporting him . No surprise there, as a former state Liberal leader that he’d have the most visibility. Although some people might think it’s a surprise that it is possible to have .45 of a voter.

The other extremely odd aspect of the poll is the claim that the bloke who conducted the poll had 3.5% of first preference support with 18% giving him a second preference.

Leaving aside the ethical implications of a pollster candidate conducting polling on himself, these numbers don’t make a lot of sense at all.

Comment:I would not read much into this poll. It clearly has no statistical merit. For example the 2nd preference and aggregated 1st and 2nd preference data does not take into consideration the fold up of the election and is in effect double counting votes. IE Gary Morgan would not receive any preferences from Robert Doyle as Robert Doyle out polls Morgan. Little wonder why Morgan gallup poll is being out performed by other polling agencies. – Melbcity

Published results of Morgans flawed survey (October 29/30, 2008)

Candidate 1st Preference 2nd Preference# 1st or 2nd Preference
Robert Doyle

26.5 %

16 %

42.5 %

Adam Bandt (Greens)

16.5 %

4.5 %

21 %

Catherine Ng

10 %

15 %

25 %

Gary Singer

5 %

6 %

11 %

Gary Morgan

3.5 %

18 %

21.5 %

Nick Columb

3 %

2 %

5 %

Peter McMullin

2 %

8 %

10 %

Will Fowles

1.5 %

3 %

4.5 %

Others*

0.5 %

2 %

2.5 %

Can’t Say/ Undecided

31.5 %

TOTAL

100 %

* Other candidates for the role of Lord Mayor of Melbourne are Joseph Toscano, Bob Crawford & Shelley Roberts.
# The 31.5% of people who were can’t say/undecided have been eliminated from the 2nd Preference