LM Poll Stats Doyle versus the rest

Analysis of the 2008 City of Melbourne Lord Mayor Election showing a head to head competition Doyle versus all other comers.
Head to head statistical analysis of the Lord Mayor Vote

Candidate Vote % Doyle % Total
McMullin 26987 46.56% 30974 53.44% 57961
Singer 26711 46.08% 31250 53.92% 57961
Ng 26613 45.92% 31348 54.08% 57961
Fowles 26006 44.87% 31955 55.13% 57961
Brandt 24911 42.98% 33050 57.02% 57961
Morgan 24770 42.74% 33191 57.26% 57961
Columb 21855 37.71% 36106 62.29% 57961
Roberts 19434 33.53% 38527 66.47% 57961
Crawford 19005 32.79% 38956 67.21% 57961
Toscano 18145 31.31% 39816 68.69% 57961

LM Poll Stats Doyle versus the rest

Analysis of the 2008 City of Melbourne Lord Mayor Election showing a head to head competition Doyle versus all other comers.
Head to head statistical analysis of the Lord Mayor Vote

Candidate Vote % Doyle % Total
McMullin 26987 46.56% 30974 53.44% 57961
Singer 26711 46.08% 31250 53.92% 57961
Ng 26613 45.92% 31348 54.08% 57961
Fowles 26006 44.87% 31955 55.13% 57961
Brandt 24911 42.98% 33050 57.02% 57961
Morgan 24770 42.74% 33191 57.26% 57961
Columb 21855 37.71% 36106 62.29% 57961
Roberts 19434 33.53% 38527 66.47% 57961
Crawford 19005 32.79% 38956 67.21% 57961
Toscano 18145 31.31% 39816 68.69% 57961

LM Poll Stats Group Candidate tickets

Analysis: Lord Mayor HTV Ticket table

Candidate Papers % to Total Vote Ticket votes % Ticket to Candidate
Doyle 15135 26.11% 6862 45.34%
McMullin 7267 12.54% 3755 51.67%
Bandt 8729 15.06% 3745 42.90%
Singer 6056 10.45% 2548 42.07%
Ng 6314 10.89% 2227 35.27%
Fowles 5004 8.63% 2218 44.32%
Morgan 4526 7.81% 1575 34.80%
Columb 2712 4.68% 1046 38.57%
Crawford 684 1.18% 223 32.60%
Toscano 815 1.41% 222 27.24%
Roberts 719 1.24% 191 26.56%

LM Poll Stats Group Candidate tickets

Analysis: Lord Mayor HTV Ticket table

Candidate Papers % to Total Vote Ticket votes % Ticket to Candidate
Doyle 15135 26.11% 6862 45.34%
McMullin 7267 12.54% 3755 51.67%
Bandt 8729 15.06% 3745 42.90%
Singer 6056 10.45% 2548 42.07%
Ng 6314 10.89% 2227 35.27%
Fowles 5004 8.63% 2218 44.32%
Morgan 4526 7.81% 1575 34.80%
Columb 2712 4.68% 1046 38.57%
Crawford 684 1.18% 223 32.60%
Toscano 815 1.41% 222 27.24%
Roberts 719 1.24% 191 26.56%

LM Poll Stats Doyle versus the rest

Analysis of the 2008 City of Melbourne Lord Mayor Election showing a head to head competition Doyle versus all other comers.
Head to head statistical analysis of the Lord Mayor Vote

Candidate Vote % Doyle % Total
McMullin 26987 46.56% 30974 53.44% 57961
Singer 26711 46.08% 31250 53.92% 57961
Ng 26613 45.92% 31348 54.08% 57961
Fowles 26006 44.87% 31955 55.13% 57961
Brandt 24911 42.98% 33050 57.02% 57961
Morgan 24770 42.74% 33191 57.26% 57961
Columb 21855 37.71% 36106 62.29% 57961
Roberts 19434 33.53% 38527 66.47% 57961
Crawford 19005 32.79% 38956 67.21% 57961
Toscano 18145 31.31% 39816 68.69% 57961

LM Poll Stats Group Candidate tickets

Analysis: Lord Mayor HTV Ticket table

Candidate Papers % to Total Vote Ticket votes % Ticket to Candidate
Doyle 15135 26.11% 6862 45.34%
McMullin 7267 12.54% 3755 51.67%
Bandt 8729 15.06% 3745 42.90%
Singer 6056 10.45% 2548 42.07%
Ng 6314 10.89% 2227 35.27%
Fowles 5004 8.63% 2218 44.32%
Morgan 4526 7.81% 1575 34.80%
Columb 2712 4.68% 1046 38.57%
Crawford 684 1.18% 223 32.60%
Toscano 815 1.41% 222 27.24%
Roberts 719 1.24% 191 26.56%

Doyle leading Lord Mayor race is close and still not over

Early analisys with 27,000 votes counted indicates Robert Doyle is set to scpare home with ALP Peter McMullin comming in second place.

The elcton count is not finalised and the projected results are subject to final analysis. There are two very close conjuntions between Catheriun Ng and Gary Singer, Catherine Ng and the Greens with less the 100 votes difference between the the two. if teh Greens survive its a McMullin Doyle toss with Doyle winning.If Ng survies its still Doyle. Dpoyle looks unbeatable have caught all the drift.

Inverse doney vote or well known name. A recount is looking more and more less likely as the count progresses. The only chance of a surpise win is if Singer and out poll Ng but with a gap of 600 votes this is unlikely.

Doyle leading Lord Mayor race is close and still not over

Early analysis with 27,000 votes counted indicates Robert Doyle is set to scrape home with ALP Peter McMullin coming in second place.

The electron count is not finalised and the projected results are subject to final analysis. There are two very close conjunctions between Catherine Ng and Gary Singer, Catherine Ng and the Greens with less the 100 votes difference between the the two. If the Greens survive its a McMullin Doyle toss with Doyle winning.If Ng surveys its still Doyle. Doyle looks unbeatable have caught all the drift.

Inverse donkey vote or well known name. A recount is looking more and more less likely as the count progresses. The only chance of a surprise win is if Singer and out poll Ng but with a gap of 600 votes this is unlikely.

Update: 50% of the vote counted the gap has widened and Robert Doyle looks as if he is unstoppable. There is a close call that keeps changing the order of elimination between Catherine Ng and The Greens but Doyle still comes up trumps.

Candidates Vote Counted Percentage
DOYLE, Robert / RILEY, Susan 8672 26.76%
NG, Catherine / MAKINGS, Terry 3561 10.99%
TOSCANO, Joseph / ELY, Margaret 495 1.53%
COLUMN, Nick / CALDWELL, Sue 1524 4.70%
BAND, Adam / MALTZAHN, Kathleen 4799 14.81%
CRAWFORD, Robert King / KENNEDY, Michael 391 1.21%
ROBERTS, Shelley / FARAH, Abdiaziz 391 1.21%
SINGER, Gary / PAINTER, Joanne 3314 10.23%
FOWLES, Will / WILSON, David 2750 8.49%
McMULLIN, Peter / WILSON, Tim 4035 12.45%
MORGAN, Gary / ANDERSON, Michele 2473 7.63%

Doyle leading Lord Mayor race is close and still not over

Early analysis with 27,000 votes counted indicates Robert Doyle is set to scrape home with ALP Peter McMullin coming in second place.

The electron count is not finalised and the projected results are subject to final analysis. There are two very close conjunctions between Catherine Ng and Gary Singer, Catherine Ng and the Greens with less the 100 votes difference between the the two. If the Greens survive its a McMullin Doyle toss with Doyle winning.If Ng surveys its still Doyle. Doyle looks unbeatable have caught all the drift.

Inverse donkey vote or well known name. A recount is looking more and more less likely as the count progresses. The only chance of a surprise win is if Singer and out poll Ng but with a gap of 600 votes this is unlikely.

Update: 50% of the vote counted the gap has widened and Robert Doyle looks as if he is unstoppable. There is a close call that keeps changing the order of elimination between Catherine Ng and The Greens but Doyle still comes up trumps.

Candidates Vote Counted Percentage
DOYLE, Robert / RILEY, Susan 8672 26.76%
NG, Catherine / MAKINGS, Terry 3561 10.99%
TOSCANO, Joseph / ELY, Margaret

495 1.53%
COLUMN, Nick / CALDWELL, Sue

1524 4.70%
BAND, Adam / MALTZAHN, Kathleen 4799

14.81%
CRAWFORD, Robert King / KENNEDY, Michael 391 1.21%
ROBERTS, Shelley / FARAH, Abdiaziz 391 1.21%
SINGER, Gary / PAINTER, Joanne 3314 10.23%
FOWLES, Will / WILSON, David 2750 8.49%
McMULLIN, Peter / WILSON, Tim 4035 12.45%
MORGAN, Gary / ANDERSON, Michele 2473 7.63%

Doyle leading Lord Mayor race is close and still not over

Early analisys with 27,000 votes counted indicates Robert Doyle is set to scpare home with ALP Peter McMullin comming in second place.

The elcton count is not finalised and the projected results are subject to final analysis. There are two very close conjuntions between Catheriun Ng and Gary Singer, Catherine Ng and the Greens with less the 100 votes difference between the the two. if teh Greens survive its a McMullin Doyle toss with Doyle winning.If Ng survies its still Doyle. Dpoyle looks unbeatable have caught all the drift.

Inverse doney vote or well known name. A recount is looking more and more less likely as the count progresses. The only chance of a surpise win is if Singer and out poll Ng but with a gap of 600 votes this is unlikely.

Doyle leading Lord Mayor race is close and still not over

Early analysis with 27,000 votes counted indicates Robert Doyle is set to scrape home with ALP Peter McMullin coming in second place.

The electron count is not finalised and the projected results are subject to final analysis. There are two very close conjunctions between Catherine Ng and Gary Singer, Catherine Ng and the Greens with less the 100 votes difference between the the two. If the Greens survive its a McMullin Doyle toss with Doyle winning.If Ng surveys its still Doyle. Doyle looks unbeatable have caught all the drift.

Inverse donkey vote or well known name. A recount is looking more and more less likely as the count progresses. The only chance of a surprise win is if Singer and out poll Ng but with a gap of 600 votes this is unlikely.

Update: 50% of the vote counted the gap has widened and Robert Doyle looks as if he is unstoppable. There is a close call that keeps changing the order of elimination between Catherine Ng and The Greens but Doyle still comes up trumps.

Candidates Vote Counted Percentage
DOYLE, Robert / RILEY, Susan 8672 26.76%
NG, Catherine / MAKINGS, Terry 3561 10.99%
TOSCANO, Joseph / ELY, Margaret

495 1.53%
COLUMN, Nick / CALDWELL, Sue

1524 4.70%
BAND, Adam / MALTZAHN, Kathleen 4799

14.81%
CRAWFORD, Robert King / KENNEDY, Michael 391 1.21%
ROBERTS, Shelley / FARAH, Abdiaziz 391 1.21%
SINGER, Gary / PAINTER, Joanne 3314 10.23%
FOWLES, Will / WILSON, David 2750 8.49%
McMULLIN, Peter / WILSON, Tim 4035 12.45%
MORGAN, Gary / ANDERSON, Michele 2473 7.63%

Doyle leading Lord Mayor race is close and still not over

Early analisys with 27,000 votes counted indicates Robert Doyle is set to scpare home with ALP Peter McMullin comming in second place.

The elcton count is not finalised and the projected results are subject to final analysis. There are two very close conjuntions between Catheriun Ng and Gary Singer, Catherine Ng and the Greens with less the 100 votes difference between the the two. if teh Greens survive its a McMullin Doyle toss with Doyle winning.If Ng survies its still Doyle. Dpoyle looks unbeatable have caught all the drift.

Inverse doney vote or well known name. A recount is looking more and more less likely as the count progresses. The only chance of a surpise win is if Singer and out poll Ng but with a gap of 600 votes this is unlikely.

Singer’s Team Melbourne shows promise Breaking away from the chorus Singer moves ahead of Catherine Ng in preview

The City of Melbourne count is labouriously proceeding as the numerous electoral officials proceed to deflap and open ballot paper envelopes. We are told that there are all up around 61300 envelopes received. The VEC could not provide an accurate figure as such we are left with an approximation only.

In the absence of a preliminary sorting of ballot papers as is the case in a Federal Election it is virtually impossible to properly scrutinise the ballot, The VEC rejected the recommendations made the the State Parliament that ballot papers be resorted into primary votes prior to data-entry. So it is now left to a random sampling process.

Whilst it is still too early to give an accurate trend, indications are that Robert Doyle is receiving 20% of the vote sampled to date. In a surprise, yet welcomed outcome, Gary Singer from Team Melbourne is doing better then expected and could outcall his running mate Catherine Ng. The combined vote of Singer and Ng, who preference each other, would be greater the the Greens. This could prove interesting as Shelly Roberts also tops up Singers vote before being distributed to McMullin. Singer could retain the vote and out poll McMullin. If this trend holds then we could see Gary Singer take Catherine Ng place rising above the chorus and becoming the lead vocal. His main competition would be Robert Doyle. Doyle’s campaign was noted for his absence from the campaign, relying purely on the name recognition factor.

Now I am not a Doyle backpacker, you understand, I think he would be a disaster for Melbourne (Mainly due to his choice of deputy lord mayor and his lead candidate in the Council ballot)

Again the information available is too patchy and too few to determine the outcome overall.There is also a built in bias in the count in that ballot papers are batched in a pseudo order based on the delivery time and collection, information that is not readily available to scrutineers. Unfortunately the count is not open and transparent, But we will keep you posted as results and trends become more clear.

Singer’s Team Melbourne shows promise Breaking away from the chorus Singer moves ahead of Catherine Ng in preview

The City of Melbourne count is labouriously proceeding as the numerous electoral officials proceed to deflap and open ballot paper envelopes. We are told that there are all up around 61300 envelopes received. The VEC could not provide an accurate figure as such we are left with an approximation only.

In the absence of a preliminary sorting of ballot papers as is the case in a Federal Election it is virtually impossible to properly scrutinise the ballot, The VEC rejected the recommendations made the the State Parliament that ballot papers be resorted into primary votes prior to data-entry. So it is now left to a random sampling process.

Whilst it is still too early to give an accurate trend, indications are that Robert Doyle is receiving 20% of the vote sampled to date. In a surprise, yet welcomed outcome, Gary Singer from Team Melbourne is doing better then expected and could outcall his running mate Catherine Ng. The combined vote of Singer and Ng, who preference each other, would be greater the the Greens. This could prove interesting as Shelly Roberts also tops up Singers vote before being distributed to McMullin. Singer could retain the vote and out poll McMullin. If this trend holds then we could see Gary Singer take Catherine Ng place rising above the chorus and becoming the lead vocal. His main competition would be Robert Doyle. Doyle’s campaign was noted for his absence from the campaign, relying purely on the name recognition factor.

Now I am not a Doyle backpacker, you understand, I think he would be a disaster for Melbourne (Mainly due to his choice of deputy lord mayor and his lead candidate in the Council ballot)

Again the information available is too patchy and too few to determine the outcome overall.There is also a built in bias in the count in that ballot papers are batched in a pseudo order based on the delivery time and collection, information that is not readily available to scrutineers. Unfortunately the count is not open and transparent, But we will keep you posted as results and trends become more clear.

VEC occupational hazard Not enough room to breath let alone to work

Scrutineers are reporting that the data-entry of preferences is being held in a 10 x 15 metre room with 18 data-entry personal crammed in and no room for scrutineers.

It is hot and oxygen is in short supply. It is reported that many mistakes in the data-entry are being made as a result. First data-set should be available around lunch time. With 18 data-entry operators and 11 candidates in theory the room should be able to accomodate over 200 people. Fantatic logicistial planning on behalf of the VEC. If a recount is on the cards you can expect a full house

Estimated time to data entry is 14 hours based on the VEC estimate of 15 sec per vote

Crikey.com has edited censored comments about Bill Lang and Steve Tully. “Censorship at its worst”, Thanks to Vex News for publishing the facts.