Flaw in ABC Antony Green’s Election Calculator

There is a noticeable flaw in ABC Anthony Green’s Election Calculator in that he has awarded the seat of Melbourne to the Greens based on the Essential Research quarterly state poll

The Greens only won Melbourne in 2010 because the Liberal Party at the time preferenced them ahead of the ALP. A mistake they are unlikely repeat in September.

In 2010 the State Liberal party fearing a backlash from its supporters placed the Greens below the ALP this allowed then State ALP member Browyn Pike to hold on to the State Seat of Melbourne.

Without LNP preferences the the only way the Greens can hold on to the Seat of Melbourne is if ALP endorsed candidate Cath Bowtell polls third below the Greens and the Liberal Party after distribution of minor party candidates preferences. in which case Cath Bowtell’s preferences will elect Adam Brandt.

LNP supporters will be conscious of this potential outcome and we will most likely see a repeat of the State By-election where LNP voters will fall behind Cath Bowtell in order to prevent the Greens from being re-elected.

All recent  polls including the Essential Research Poll are showing a Statewide drop in Greens support which lends even more to the flaws in Antony Greens Calculations. You can not apply a statewide swing overall to a specific seat such as Melbourne where the 2PP contest is not between the LNP and the ALP.

UPDATE:  It is clear that Antony Green has hard coded in the defeat of  Independent seats as shown by this scenario on his calculator

Northern State Alarm Bells Ring Out

The ALP loss in NSW was expected but never the less sends a clear warning for Victoria and the future of the ALP Gillard Government.

Victoria managed to hold back the landslide and catastrophe that was waiting to happen in NSW. Victoria was spared in part because of Gillard. Had it not been for Gillard the Victorian ALP would have seen a blood bath last year as we are now witnessing in NSW.

John Brumby managed to hold back the tide. He should have won the November State Election and only fell short by one seat in what would have under different circumstances been a similar fate to what we have seen in NSW this weekend.

The reason Brumby failed to be re-elected was primarily due to the ALP ‘s State Office and the lack of solid leadership coming from the State Secretariat. As highlighted by George Droukas, ALP strategist, in his assessment review of the State election – former ALP secretary Nick Reece lost Brumby the election. Reece also contributed to the slide in Federal support in 2010.

The ALP is facing a long cold spell in Victoria and unless things improve we could see a repeat of events that occurred in NSW this weekend.

A 10% swing away from labour will see the ALP lose a number of Inner City seats including Melbourne Ports. A fact that has not escaped the attention of the ALP power brokers that be.

With the Greens on the eve of assuming control of the Senate in July and the smell of power within the grasp of the Liberal Party pressure will be on to force a double dissolution of the Federal Parliament later this year.

If there is to be a fresh Federal election then Gillard will be defeated, swamped by the tide of disaffected voters nationally. Julia Gillard like Kristine Keneally is highly capable and skilled at providing a leadership role. Keneally’s short lived premiership was impressive. Like Brumby she was weighed down by a governemnt that had been in office for over three terms and was let down by her back bench and the lack of professional administrative support.

It is this lack of engagement with the party and the broader community that is depleting the ALPs support and seriously placing at risk the next Federal election. If the level of disengagement and lack of professionalism continues we will soon see Melbourne without any ALP representation.

The prospect of Australia facing a new Federal election in six months is real.

Unless the issues of professionalism and management are addressed the ALP will be left out in the cold for many years to come.

Northern State Alarm Bells Ring Out

The ALP loss in NSW was expected but never the less sends a clear warning for Victoria and the future of the ALP Gillard Government.

Victoria managed to hold back the landslide and catastrophe that was waiting to happen in NSW. Victoria was spared in part because of Gillard. Had it not been for Gillard the Victorian ALP would have seen a blood bath last year as we are now witnessing in NSW.

John Brumby managed to hold back the tide. He should have won the November State Election and only fell short by one seat in what would have under different circumstances been a similar fate to what we have seen in NSW this weekend.

The reason Brumby failed to be re-elected was primarily due to the ALP ‘s State Office and the lack of solid leadership coming from the State Secretariat. As highlighted by George Droukas, ALP strategist, in his assessment review of the State election – former ALP secretary Nick Reece lost Brumby the election. Reece also contributed to the slide in Federal support in 2010.

The ALP is facing a long cold spell in Victoria and unless things improve we could see a repeat of events that occurred in NSW this weekend.

A 10% swing away from labour will see the ALP lose a number of Inner City seats including Melbourne Ports. A fact that has not escaped the attention of the ALP power brokers that be.

With the Greens on the eve of assuming control of the Senate in July and the smell of power within the grasp of the Liberal Party pressure will be on to force a double dissolution of the Federal Parliament later this year.

If there is to be a fresh Federal election then Gillard will be defeated, swamped by the tide of disaffected voters nationally. Julia Gillard like Kristine Keneally is highly capable and skilled at providing a leadership role. Keneally’s short lived premiership was impressive. Like Brumby she was weighed down by a governemnt that had been in office for over three terms and was let down by her back bench and the lack of professional administrative support.

It is this lack of engagement with the party and the broader community that is depleting the ALPs support and seriously placing at risk the next Federal election. If the level of disengagement and lack of professionalism continues we will soon see Melbourne without any ALP representation.

The prospect of Australia facing a new Federal election in six months is real.

Unless the issues of professionalism and management are addressed the ALP will be left out in the cold for many years to come.

Northern State Alarm Bells Ring Out

The ALP loss in NSW was expected but never the less sends a clear warning for Victoria and the future of the ALP Gillard Government.

Victoria managed to hold back the landslide and catastrophe that was waiting to happen in NSW. Victoria was spared in part because of Gillard. Had it not been for Gillard the Victorian ALP would have seen a blood bath last year as we are now witnessing in NSW.

John Brumby managed to hold back the tide. He should have won the November State Election and only fell short by one seat in what would have under different circumstances been a similar fate to what we have seen in NSW this weekend.

The reason Brumby failed to be re-elected was primarily due to the ALP ‘s State Office and the lack of solid leadership coming from the State Secretariat. As highlighted by George Droukas, ALP strategist, in his assessment review of the State election – former ALP secretary Nick Reece lost Brumby the election. Reece also contributed to the slide in Federal support in 2010.

The ALP is facing a long cold spell in Victoria and unless things improve we could see a repeat of events that occurred in NSW this weekend.

A 10% swing away from labour will see the ALP lose a number of Inner City seats including Melbourne Ports. A fact that has not escaped the attention of the ALP power brokers that be.

With the Greens on the eve of assuming control of the Senate in July and the smell of power within the grasp of the Liberal Party pressure will be on to force a double dissolution of the Federal Parliament later this year.

If there is to be a fresh Federal election then Gillard will be defeated, swamped by the tide of disaffected voters nationally. Julia Gillard like Kristine Keneally is highly capable and skilled at providing a leadership role. Keneally’s short lived premiership was impressive. Like Brumby she was weighed down by a governemnt that had been in office for over three terms and was let down by her back bench and the lack of professional administrative support.

It is this lack of engagement with the party and the broader community that is depleting the ALPs support and seriously placing at risk the next Federal election. If the level of disengagement and lack of professionalism continues we will soon see Melbourne without any ALP representation.

The prospect of Australia facing a new Federal election in six months is real.

Unless the issues of professionalism and management are addressed the ALP will be left out in the cold for many years to come.

A margin of error: ABC misleads the electorate

The ABC breakfast program has demonstrated a lack of professionalism by publishing false and misleading information by claiming a contest between the ALP and the Greens.

In 2007
The Australian Labor Party in 2007 had a primary vote of 43,363 (49.51%)
The Greens 19,967 (22.8%)
The Liberal Party polled 20,577 (23.49%)

After distribution of preferences The Greens only managed to out poll the Liberal Party by a margin of 591 (0.67%) following the distribution of Democrats preferences.

The Contest is not between the ALP and the Greens 4% margin but between the Greens and the Liberal Party 0.67% margin.

The Greens also had the so called “Donkey” Vote which represents 1.5% of the electorate

The ABC did not interview the Liberal Party Candidate.

AEC Full results

A margin of error: ABC misleads the electorate

The ABC breakfast program has demonstrated a lack of professionalism by publishing false and misleading information by claiming a contest between the ALP and the Greens.

In 2007
The Australian Labor Party in 2007 had a primary vote of 43,363 (49.51%)
The Greens 19,967 (22.8%)
The Liberal Party polled 20,577 (23.49%)

After distribution of preferences The Greens only managed to out poll the Liberal Party by a margin of 591 (0.67%) following the distribution of Democrats preferences.

The Contest is not between the ALP and the Greens 4% margin but between the Greens and the Liberal Party 0.67% margin.

The Greens also had the so called “Donkey” Vote which represents 1.5% of the electorate

The ABC did not interview the Liberal Party Candidate.

AEC Full results

A margin of error: ABC misleads the electorate

The ABC breakfast program has demonstrated a lack of professionalism by publishing false and misleading information by claiming a contest between the ALP and the Greens.

In 2007
The Australian Labor Party in 2007 had a primary vote of 43,363 (49.51%)
The Greens 19,967 (22.8%)
The Liberal Party polled 20,577 (23.49%)

After distribution of preferences The Greens only managed to out poll the Liberal Party by a margin of 591 (0.67%) following the distribution of Democrats preferences.

The Contest is not between the ALP and the Greens 4% margin but between the Greens and the Liberal Party 0.67% margin.

The Greens also had the so called “Donkey” Vote which represents 1.5% of the electorate

The ABC did not interview the Liberal Party Candidate.

AEC Full results

Bowtell to be preselected to trim the Green vote

Cath Bowtell, wife of Local Government Minister Chief of Staff, is expected to be preselected for the Federal Seat of Melbourne to replace outgoing Member and Minister for Finance Lindsay Tanner.

Sources close to Lindsay Tanner’s Office have indicated that Bowtell will be preselected unopposed with the united support of ALP right factions over left internal organiser, Andrew Giles, who was earlier thought to be odds on favorite.

Bowtell has strong credentials and is well suited to take on the Greens at the next Federal election expected to be held in late August early September.

Preselection for the federal seat of Melbourne is expected to be uncontested with the left fielding only one candidate. Left organiser Andrew Giles has been left out of consideration with many believing that Giles is not the right candidate for this seat. The ALP needs to preselect someone of high caliber who can take on the Greens and secure the seat against all comers. Cath Bowtell fits the bill.

Bowtell to be preselected to trim the Green vote

Cath Bowtell, wife of Local Government Minister Chief of Staff, is expected to be preselected for the Federal Seat of Melbourne to replace outgoing Member and Minister for Finance Lindsay Tanner.

Sources close to Lindsay Tanner’s Office have indicated that Bowtell will be preselected unopposed with the united support of ALP right factions over left internal organiser, Andrew Giles, who was earlier thought to be odds on favorite.

Bowtell has strong credentials and is well suited to take on the Greens at the next Federal election expected to be held in late August early September.

Preselection for the federal seat of Melbourne is expected to be uncontested with the left fielding only one candidate. Left organiser Andrew Giles has been left out of consideration with many believing that Giles is not the right candidate for this seat. The ALP needs to preselect someone of high caliber who can take on the Greens and secure the seat against all comers. Cath Bowtell fits the bill.

Bowtell to be preselected to trim the Green vote

Cath Bowtell, wife of Local Government Minister Chief of Staff, is expected to be preselected for the Federal Seat of Melbourne to replace outgoing Member and Minister for Finance Lindsay Tanner.

Sources close to Lindsay Tanner’s Office have indicated that Bowtell will be preselected unopposed with the united support of ALP right factions over left internal organiser, Andrew Giles, who was earlier thought to be odds on favorite.

Bowtell has strong credentials and is well suited to take on the Greens at the next Federal election expected to be held in late August early September.

Preselection for the federal seat of Melbourne is expected to be uncontested with the left fielding only one candidate. Left organiser Andrew Giles has been left out of consideration with many believing that Giles is not the right candidate for this seat. The ALP needs to preselect someone of high caliber who can take on the Greens and secure the seat against all comers. Cath Bowtell fits the bill.