Analysis of the published preference deals tell a tale of betrayal and deceit.
Out of contention is the Greens and Brian Shanahan leaving Doyle as front runner and an outside chance for Gary Singer/John So Jr .
Forward Together – Keith Rankin (LM) Grace Han (DLM): Preferences go to Robert Doyle (2) and then Shanahan (3) Shanahan will not see these preferences as they will sit with Team Doyle
Shanahan Chamberlin for Melbourne – Brian Shanahan (LM) Judy Katz (DLM) Preferences go to David Nolte (2), Keith Rankin (3) and then transfer to Team Doyle. Shanahan effectively elcting Doyle when he is eliminated. This deal is a trade off to ensue that Keven Chamberlin is elected to Council and the Greens defeated. Shanhan has the advantage of the Donkey vote but fails to pick up preferences ahead of the Greens where it counts. He will be eliminated early in the count
Team Doyle – Robert Doyle (LM) Susan Riley (DLM): Robert Doyle is the front runner and expected to win. he picks up the donkey vote and also preferences from Brian Shanahan (See above) his only contender now is Gary Singer and John So. Doyle’s preferences go to Brian Shanahan but he will not stay alive in teh count to see them transferred.
Morgan Elliot – Prosperity for Livibility – Gary Morgan (LM) John Eliot (DLM): Morgan will poll below 10% Morgan and John Elliot (ex-Liberal Party President) has placed Robert Doyle last they have cut a deal with disinfected Liberal Party member David Nolte. Nolte would need to out poll Morgan in order to see his preference but he will not benefit much as Mograns preferences will not hold. Their preferences favours the Greens and then flows to Gary Singer/John So. Many of his supporters will not vote Greens (Possible advantage to Singer/So
Our Melbourne – David Nolte (LM) Connie Paglianti (DLM) Nolte has crossed preferenced to Shanahan which if Shanahan can outpoll Notle will delay his exclusion. Same applies to Nolte but neither can out-poll the Greens, Doyle or Singer. Nolte’s vote eventually lands on Gary Singer giving Singer/So a clear advantage over the Greens and a contest with team Doyle
The Greens – Alison Parks (LM) David Collis (DLM): The Greens are in a contest with Shanhan, Nolte and Morgan. Whilst Morgan in theory favours the Greens his vote will not hold. Singer will out-poll the Greens and be transferred in the majority to Singer/So if Robert Doyle is not already elected following the transfer of Brian Shanahan’s votes.
Gary Singer – John So Melbourne Living – Gary Singer (LM) John So, Jr. (DLM): Singer is best placed in terms of the published preferences. He has honoured his preference deal to Brian Shanahan. A deal that was not receipiated. Undone at the last moment to sure up Kevin Chamberlin’s election in the Council ballot. Singer is well placed to pickup preferences from Morgan and Nolte and the Greens. He will needs to secure around 15% to 20% primary vote to remain a strong contender for second place and a possible win.
Community And Business Leadership – Bernard Ahmed (LM) Sunny Lu (DLM): Ahmed will be the second candidate eliminated after Joseph Toscano. His preferences flow to team Doyle via the Greens estimated 1% to 2%
Put Public First – Joseph Toscano (LM) Jean Ely (DLM): Toscano is a serial candidate that polls less than 500 votes. He will be the first excluded and will travel the field before landing on Gary Singer.
Analysis of past votes show that voters nominate and preference their first two chosen candidates and then donkey vote from the top down (Known as the Inverse Donkey Vote). This would under normal circumstances favour Brian Shanahan but Shanhan will be excluded before he can benefit from the preference flow. The inverse donkey vote elected Robert Doyle in 2008. Had Peter McMullin been placed at the top of the ballot in 2008 he would have been elected instead of Robert Doyle.
Doyle as the advantage thanks to Brian Shanahan’s “sweet-heart” preference deal but much depends on the pull power of John So and how much John So (Sr) is prepared to spend to help kick off his sons political carrer.