Southwick Heads South The Southern Metropolitan Region has just produced a change of fortune for ALP dot.com millionaire

UPDATE: (December 1 17:00) There was some residual counting left over from yesterday and Thornley has taken the lead once again as the three main players race to the finish line. Its neck and neck and anyone can come out of this race the winner.

At the crucial conjunction point the vote was ..
GRN 46863
ALP 46814
LIB 41714
FF 9696
DEM 9197

People Power had just been eliminated and they top up the Democrats who are marginally below Family First.

The Democrats votes flow to the Greens who on the Democrats ticket first preferences cross the line with minimal surplus. (This is the segmentation order at play) The Democrats still have another 4,387 votes to distribute (that came to it as second preferences + their below the line volts to their lower candidates). The Green surplus (256 votes) is then distributed to the ALP.

The Democrats remaining votes are then distributed to the ALP pushing Thornley over the line a head of Southwick. with a margin of less then 20 votes.

You begin to see how close this race is. Those 20 could easily disappear in the exhausted pile or drift from the below the line voters. The Democrats and People Power preferences are keeping the Greens in the race but Labor and the Liberals are catching up fast.

http://melbcity.topcities.com/ for latest analysis count sheet..

(November 30: 1700) Latest election counting has put David Southwick in the lead for the fifth spot in Southern Metropolitan: shattering ALP dot com millionaire Even Thornley’s hopes of entering parliament and with t the ALP’s dominance of both houses.

The long expected 7000 + postal votes have been counted and Southwick has received the lions share. It’s literally with 0.04% less then 150 votes.

This will certainly go to a recount and may even go to court. There were a number of irregularities in the count with the Victorian Electoral Commissioner refusing to provide detailed information relevant to the conduct of the election. This would have to be one of the worst conducted counts in recent memory.

Already questions are being asked on a number of issues. The main issue appears dissatisfaction with the ALP decision to preselect a candidate in Western Metropolitan with close ties to Syria which has alienated Melbourne’s Jewish Community who in turn dumped the ALP and voted on mass for the Liberal Party.

With the adoption of optional preferential voting Labor’s fortune are expected to decline even further as many of the Green votes are expected to exhaust reducing Evans chance with them.

Update:

Andrew Landeryou has posted on the Other Cheek a real possibility that if the vote continues to unfold as it has in the last 24hrs ,where the Greens have been losing ground, there is realistic possibility that Evan Thornley could overtake the Greens and be elected on the back of a small surplus delivered to the ALP but the Liberal Party.

For each vote added to the table the quota changes. 2/3rds of each vote is absorbed in the existing four quotas.

Problem is we do not know how many ballot papers have been issued. We tried to get this information from the VEC but the Chief Electoral Commission was unable to unwilling to provide any statistics on the number of postal votes that had been issued. This information is normally readily available but for some reason Steve Tully refused to provide the data prior to Saturday’s poll.

As a result it is difficult to ascertain. Certainly if there are more votes to be counted and the Greens percentage is declining then YES the Greens could lose out and could fall below Evan Thornley in which case Evan will cross the line first. Again its like walking around in the fog without necessary information. Another issue that needs to be examined is the impact of optional preferential voting. I am waiting to hear feedback from Scrutineers. Hopefully they will be able to secure a copy of the preference data file because without that there is no way they can properly scrutinise the election in this round without it. again this information use to be made available but Mr Tully has to date refused to make it available. With this election being close he will have to reconsider or face a court challenge.

Southwick Heads South The Southern Metropolitan Region has just produced a change of fortune for ALP dot.com millionaire

UPDATE: (December 1 17:00) There was some residual counting left over from yesterday and Thornley has taken the lead once again as the three main players race to the finish line. Its neck and neck and anyone can come out of this race the winner.

At the crucial conjunction point the vote was ..
GRN 46863
ALP 46814
LIB 41714
FF 9696
DEM 9197

People Power had just been eliminated and they top up the Democrats who are marginally below Family First.

The Democrats votes flow to the Greens who on the Democrats ticket first preferences cross the line with minimal surplus. (This is the segmentation order at play) The Democrats still have another 4,387 votes to distribute (that came to it as second preferences + their below the line volts to their lower candidates). The Green surplus (256 votes) is then distributed to the ALP.

The Democrats remaining votes are then distributed to the ALP pushing Thornley over the line a head of Southwick. with a margin of less then 20 votes.

You begin to see how close this race is. Those 20 could easily disappear in the exhausted pile or drift from the below the line voters. The Democrats and People Power preferences are keeping the Greens in the race but Labor and the Liberals are catching up fast.

http://melbcity.topcities.com/ for latest analysis count sheet..

(November 30: 1700) Latest election counting has put David Southwick in the lead for the fifth spot in Southern Metropolitan: shattering ALP dot com millionaire Even Thornley’s hopes of entering parliament and with t the ALP’s dominance of both houses.

The long expected 7000 + postal votes have been counted and Southwick has received the lions share. It’s literally with 0.04% less then 150 votes.

This will certainly go to a recount and may even go to court. There were a number of irregularities in the count with the Victorian Electoral Commissioner refusing to provide detailed information relevant to the conduct of the election. This would have to be one of the worst conducted counts in recent memory.

Already questions are being asked on a number of issues. The main issue appears dissatisfaction with the ALP decision to preselect a candidate in Western Metropolitan with close ties to Syria which has alienated Melbourne’s Jewish Community who in turn dumped the ALP and voted on mass for the Liberal Party.

With the adoption of optional preferential voting Labor’s fortune are expected to decline even further as many of the Green votes are expected to exhaust reducing Evans chance with them.

Update:

Andrew Landeryou has posted on the Other Cheek a real possibility that if the vote continues to unfold as it has in the last 24hrs ,where the Greens have been losing ground, there is realistic possibility that Evan Thornley could overtake the Greens and be elected on the back of a small surplus delivered to the ALP but the Liberal Party.

For each vote added to the table the quota changes. 2/3rds of each vote is absorbed in the existing four quotas.

Problem is we do not know how many ballot papers have been issued. We tried to get this information from the VEC but the Chief Electoral Commission was unable to unwilling to provide any statistics on the number of postal votes that had been issued. This information is normally readily available but for some reason Steve Tully refused to provide the data prior to Saturday’s poll.

As a result it is difficult to ascertain. Certainly if there are more votes to be counted and the Greens percentage is declining then YES the Greens could lose out and could fall below Evan Thornley in which case Evan will cross the line first. Again its like walking around in the fog without necessary information. Another issue that needs to be examined is the impact of optional preferential voting. I am waiting to hear feedback from Scrutineers. Hopefully they will be able to secure a copy of the preference data file because without that there is no way they can properly scrutinise the election in this round without it. again this information use to be made available but Mr Tully has to date refused to make it available. With this election being close he will have to reconsider or face a court challenge.

Southwick Heads South The Southern Metropolitan Region has just produced a change of fortune for ALP dot.com millionaire

UPDATE: (December 1 17:00) There was some residual counting left over from yesterday and Thornley has taken the lead once again as the three main players race to the finish line. Its neck and neck and anyone can come out of this race the winner.

At the crucial conjunction point the vote was ..
GRN 46863
ALP 46814
LIB 41714
FF 9696
DEM 9197

People Power had just been eliminated and they top up the Democrats who are marginally below Family First.

The Democrats votes flow to the Greens who on the Democrats ticket first preferences cross the line with minimal surplus. (This is the segmentation order at play) The Democrats still have another 4,387 votes to distribute (that came to it as second preferences + their below the line volts to their lower candidates). The Green surplus (256 votes) is then distributed to the ALP.

The Democrats remaining votes are then distributed to the ALP pushing Thornley over the line a head of Southwick. with a margin of less then 20 votes.

You begin to see how close this race is. Those 20 could easily disappear in the exhausted pile or drift from the below the line voters. The Democrats and People Power preferences are keeping the Greens in the race but Labor and the Liberals are catching up fast.

http://melbcity.topcities.com/ for latest analysis count sheet..

(November 30: 1700) Latest election counting has put David Southwick in the lead for the fifth spot in Southern Metropolitan: shattering ALP dot com millionaire Even Thornley’s hopes of entering parliament and with t the ALP’s dominance of both houses.

The long expected 7000 + postal votes have been counted and Southwick has received the lions share. It’s literally with 0.04% less then 150 votes.

This will certainly go to a recount and may even go to court. There were a number of irregularities in the count with the Victorian Electoral Commissioner refusing to provide detailed information relevant to the conduct of the election. This would have to be one of the worst conducted counts in recent memory.

Already questions are being asked on a number of issues. The main issue appears dissatisfaction with the ALP decision to preselect a candidate in Western Metropolitan with close ties to Syria which has alienated Melbourne’s Jewish Community who in turn dumped the ALP and voted on mass for the Liberal Party.

With the adoption of optional preferential voting Labor’s fortune are expected to decline even further as many of the Green votes are expected to exhaust reducing Evans chance with them.

Update:

Andrew Landeryou has posted on the Other Cheek a real possibility that if the vote continues to unfold as it has in the last 24hrs ,where the Greens have been losing ground, there is realistic possibility that Evan Thornley could overtake the Greens and be elected on the back of a small surplus delivered to the ALP but the Liberal Party.

For each vote added to the table the quota changes. 2/3rds of each vote is absorbed in the existing four quotas.

Problem is we do not know how many ballot papers have been issued. We tried to get this information from the VEC but the Chief Electoral Commission was unable to unwilling to provide any statistics on the number of postal votes that had been issued. This information is normally readily available but for some reason Steve Tully refused to provide the data prior to Saturday’s poll.

As a result it is difficult to ascertain. Certainly if there are more votes to be counted and the Greens percentage is declining then YES the Greens could lose out and could fall below Evan Thornley in which case Evan will cross the line first. Again its like walking around in the fog without necessary information. Another issue that needs to be examined is the impact of optional preferential voting. I am waiting to hear feedback from Scrutineers. Hopefully they will be able to secure a copy of the preference data file because without that there is no way they can properly scrutinise the election in this round without it. again this information use to be made available but Mr Tully has to date refused to make it available. With this election being close he will have to reconsider or face a court challenge.

Brack’s new team announce Ex Melbourne Lord Mayor, Richard Wynne, appointed Local Government Minister responsible for the City of Melbourne

Andrew Landeryou (The Other Cheek) has just reported on the make-up of the new Bracks Government Ministry following a historic 3rd-term win for the Labor State Government

Not a bad team and it was good to see Dick Wynne allocated the most important Local Government Ministry. Dick, a former Lord Mayor of Melbourne, knows Local Government best. He should and hopefully will put his mark on the portfolio and continue with much needed reform of this sector.

When the ALP get around to fulfilling Bronwyn Pike’s election promise to residents and business of Kensington to review the City of Melbourne’s external boundaries, hopefully Dick will open up the review and include all players and interested parties (including Carlton, Prahran, South Yarra, Kensington and possibly Richmond and Albert Park, South Melbourne, Port Melbourne and St. Kilda regions – By suggestion is that a Greater City of Melbourne should take in the State Seats of Melbourne, Richmond, Prahran and Albert Park based loosely around the former Melbourne Province Boundaries with the Yarra being the central uniting focus)

The ALP has a clear mandate for reform of the inner city council and with Melbourne City Council’s senior Liberal party member, Peter Clark, recently supporting a call for a review of the cities boundaries, the idea of Greater Melbourne might manage to make it onto the Governments reform agenda. if its going to happen then Dick is the man to oversee the transition.

We look forward to a successful term in office as the ALP works towards a forth term in 2010.

Brack’s new team announce Ex Melbourne Lord Mayor, Richard Wynne, appointed Local Government Minister responsible for the City of Melbourne

Andrew Landeryou (The Other Cheek) has just reported on the make-up of the new Bracks Government Ministry following a historic 3rd-term win for the Labor State Government

Not a bad team and it was good to see Dick Wynne allocated the most important Local Government Ministry. Dick, a former Lord Mayor of Melbourne, knows Local Government best. He should and hopefully will put his mark on the portfolio and continue with much needed reform of this sector.

When the ALP get around to fulfilling Bronwyn Pike’s election promise to residents and business of Kensington to review the City of Melbourne’s external boundaries, hopefully Dick will open up the review and include all players and interested parties (including Carlton, Prahran, South Yarra, Kensington and possibly Richmond and Albert Park, South Melbourne, Port Melbourne and St. Kilda regions – By suggestion is that a Greater City of Melbourne should take in the State Seats of Melbourne, Richmond, Prahran and Albert Park based loosely around the former Melbourne Province Boundaries with the Yarra being the central uniting focus)

The ALP has a clear mandate for reform of the inner city council and with Melbourne City Council’s senior Liberal party member, Peter Clark, recently supporting a call for a review of the cities boundaries, the idea of Greater Melbourne might manage to make it onto the Governments reform agenda. if its going to happen then Dick is the man to oversee the transition.

We look forward to a successful term in office as the ALP works towards a forth term in 2010.

Brack’s new team announce Ex Melbourne Lord Mayor, Richard Wynne, appointed Local Government Minister responsible for the City of Melbourne

Andrew Landeryou (The Other Cheek) has just reported on the make-up of the new Bracks Government Ministry following a historic 3rd-term win for the Labor State Government

Not a bad team and it was good to see Dick Wynne allocated the most important Local Government Ministry. Dick, a former Lord Mayor of Melbourne, knows Local Government best. He should and hopefully will put his mark on the portfolio and continue with much needed reform of this sector.

When the ALP get around to fulfilling Bronwyn Pike’s election promise to residents and business of Kensington to review the City of Melbourne’s external boundaries, hopefully Dick will open up the review and include all players and interested parties (including Carlton, Prahran, South Yarra, Kensington and possibly Richmond and Albert Park, South Melbourne, Port Melbourne and St. Kilda regions – By suggestion is that a Greater City of Melbourne should take in the State Seats of Melbourne, Richmond, Prahran and Albert Park based loosely around the former Melbourne Province Boundaries with the Yarra being the central uniting focus)

The ALP has a clear mandate for reform of the inner city council and with Melbourne City Council’s senior Liberal party member, Peter Clark, recently supporting a call for a review of the cities boundaries, the idea of Greater Melbourne might manage to make it onto the Governments reform agenda. if its going to happen then Dick is the man to oversee the transition.

We look forward to a successful term in office as the ALP works towards a forth term in 2010.

Changing boundaries Review of Melbourne City Council’s external boundaries must be broadened to include Prahran, South Yarra, and Carlton

The Bracks Government’s ability to reinvent and rejuvenate itself is an important attribute of good goverance. The changes to the cabinet line up is a positive move and a new direction for the Labor Government and new faces and fresh talent take on the task of providing policy renewal and reform.

Candy Broad did not address the many issues still facing local government. There is a need not just to regularly review the internal representative boundaries of Local government but a need for further review of external boundaries as well.

The City of Melbourne is on such example. If it was not for Bronwyn Pike’s commitment to review the City of Melbourne boundaries in respect for Kensington she would have been in a much closer fight to retain her seat.

Any review of the City of Melbourne external boundaries should not just be limited to Kensington. Carlton, Prahran and South Yarra should also be under consideration and opportunity provided to seek all residents’ opinions and views on the creation of a Greater City of Melbourne. Democracy is about giving a voice to the people. Kensington residents’ and others, myself included, have been calling for a review of the City’s external boundaries ever since the Labor Government obtained office.

To deny the community the opportunity to have their proposals heard and acted on is a denial of representation and the right of the community to self determination on how best they are governed.

This issue must be put back on the agenda and the State Government has a clear mandate to do exactly that.

Anthony van der Craats
http://melbournecitycouncil.blogspot.com

Changing boundaries Review of Melbourne City Council’s external boundaries must be broadened to include Prahran, South Yarra, and Carlton

The Bracks Government’s ability to reinvent and rejuvenate itself is an important attribute of good goverance. The changes to the cabinet line up is a positive move and a new direction for the Labor Government and new faces and fresh talent take on the task of providing policy renewal and reform.

Candy Broad did not address the many issues still facing local government. There is a need not just to regularly review the internal representative boundaries of Local government but a need for further review of external boundaries as well.

The City of Melbourne is on such example. If it was not for Bronwyn Pike’s commitment to review the City of Melbourne boundaries in respect for Kensington she would have been in a much closer fight to retain her seat.

Any review of the City of Melbourne external boundaries should not just be limited to Kensington. Carlton, Prahran and South Yarra should also be under consideration and opportunity provided to seek all residents’ opinions and views on the creation of a Greater City of Melbourne. Democracy is about giving a voice to the people. Kensington residents’ and others, myself included, have been calling for a review of the City’s external boundaries ever since the Labor Government obtained office.

To deny the community the opportunity to have their proposals heard and acted on is a denial of representation and the right of the community to self determination on how best they are governed.

This issue must be put back on the agenda and the State Government has a clear mandate to do exactly that.

Anthony van der Craats
http://melbournecitycouncil.blogspot.com

Changing boundaries Review of Melbourne City Council’s external boundaries must be broadened to include Prahran, South Yarra, and Carlton

The Bracks Government’s ability to reinvent and rejuvenate itself is an important attribute of good goverance. The changes to the cabinet line up is a positive move and a new direction for the Labor Government and new faces and fresh talent take on the task of providing policy renewal and reform.

Candy Broad did not address the many issues still facing local government. There is a need not just to regularly review the internal representative boundaries of Local government but a need for further review of external boundaries as well.

The City of Melbourne is on such example. If it was not for Bronwyn Pike’s commitment to review the City of Melbourne boundaries in respect for Kensington she would have been in a much closer fight to retain her seat.

Any review of the City of Melbourne external boundaries should not just be limited to Kensington. Carlton, Prahran and South Yarra should also be under consideration and opportunity provided to seek all residents’ opinions and views on the creation of a Greater City of Melbourne. Democracy is about giving a voice to the people. Kensington residents’ and others, myself included, have been calling for a review of the City’s external boundaries ever since the Labor Government obtained office.

To deny the community the opportunity to have their proposals heard and acted on is a denial of representation and the right of the community to self determination on how best they are governed.

This issue must be put back on the agenda and the State Government has a clear mandate to do exactly that.

Anthony van der Craats
http://melbournecitycouncil.blogspot.com

Scrutinising elections in e-Space Ongoing of concern about the conduct of electronic voting and the need for information to be readily available

The conduct of the 2006 Victorian State election had little to be desired, with the Victorian Electoral Commission again proving that it is the lesser of the two public authorities responsible for the conduct of public elections in Victoria.

The refusal of the VEC to publish detailed polling booth data for the Legislative Council and its failure to provide statistical information on the number of ballot papers issued prior to Saturday’s election has denied Victorians the right of an open and transparent election.

We are told that the reason that polling booth data was not provided is that the ABC
thought that the information was unnecessary for their purposes. If the provision of relevant data was too much for the ABC then the VEC should have produced two separate data files and left it up to the ABC what they wanted to report on.

The VEC has an obligation that goes beyond information the media. It is about maintaining open and transparent process.

Question: Will the polling booth data and below-the line-preference data be readily available after the declaration of the poll or do we have to FOI them again?

In future hopefully those in the loop will not only recommended but insist on full disclose of detailed election results and that includes producing data on the number of postal votes, pre-poll ballots issued along with electronic votes being identifiable from ordinary manual votes.

The issue of the VEC accessing the e-voting data before the close of the poll raises a number of issues of ongoing concern about the security of the electronic voting voting system that’s been implemented. What mechanisms are in place to ensure that the results are true and accurate and subject to independent, effective and proper scrutiny?

The recent mid term elections in the USA also highlight a number of issues.

The world was told that Florida’s elections were a true and accurate account, but there was no way to independently verify the fact.

Our system is a little different. We have a a preferential voting system, one of the worlds best and most democratic. With preferential voting the need to provide the preference data used to calculate the results is crucial. Even more so when it involves a third-party data-entry process.

Whilst there are some mechanisms in place to limit some data-entry transcription problems the system is still is open and susceptible to errors.

In previous election counts the VEC refused to do a preliminary manual throw of preferences, preferring to jump in and start the random data-entry process. This resulted in nightmare as it made it extremely difficult and close to impossible for scrutineers to monitor the accuracy of the computerised data-entry count. Another check digit removed.

A preliminary throw of the below-the-line votes not only helps with analyzing the outcome of the election but it also assists in the data-entry and scrutiny of the ballot. Scrutineers can decide which votes are of interest and devote resources accordingly. (We had the absurd situation, during the Melbourne City Council and other municipal elections, where if there was 20 candidates and 20 data-entry personal up to 400 scrutineers would have been required to properly scrutinise the data-entry process) Without a preliminary manual distribution scrutineers were denied the right to effectively monitor the various processes.

Unlike the VEC the AEC also provided information on the informal votes which was included in the data-set the AEC provided. This was very interesting and useful as votes of interest could be identified, pulled out and rechecked.

In providing copies of the preference data-set, Scrutineers are afforded the opportunity of undertaking independent analysis of the data as the count unfolds. Various electronic data queries could be run against copies of the data, queries that would not normally be undertaken by the electoral office, highlighting again votes of interest that could then be subject to a secondary glance and review.

Most of the issues discussed above diminish if and when we remove the third-party data-entry process altogether and voters record their electronic vote directly. As we move closer an closer to a time when voters will use computer technology to record their votes directly in real time new and additional issues of concern begin to rise . Issues such as the electorate office undertaking a preliminary count of the vote prior to the close of the poll. (As appears to have been the case in this election)

Electronic voting machines MUST be fitted with write once read only recording devices so that we can be confident that the data has not been hacked into from a central location out in cyberspace. Copies of this data and backup disk must be made available to scrutineers at the close of the poll. Each unit must also be stand alone and not be reliant on a central data connection. The last thing you want is someone with access to this data recording information, unknown to others misusing that data by either changing a few preferences or selling the information to interested parties (Political and commercial). At the conclusion of the count a certified and digitally signed data copy of all votes and preferences MUST be published on the Governments Internet site as part of the declaration procedures.

The issues that have been identified in America are the same here and world wide. The more elections move into e-Space the greater the significance in the provision of data in order to ensure that the election process remains open and transparent and is subject to independent public scrutiny. Without this information, as has been evident in this count, the public and scrutineers are left in the dark.

In previous elections polling booth data and the number of ballot papers issued were available and should have been in this election.